It’s been about nine years since the first battle between Horiguchi and Kape, which took place in the opening round of the RIZIN 2017 Grand Prix. Already at the top of his game, Horiguchi took apart Kape, landing the heavier blows and out-wrestling the knockout artist en route to a late submission win. In the years since the first bout, Horiguchi has continued to accomplish great things, winning gold in RIZIN and Bellator en route to his eventual Octagon return. Kape, meanwhile has gotten so much better. He captured a RIZIN title as well, but Kape appears to be just peaking in the last year or so, as he rides a three-fight knockout streak into this likely title eliminator.

Horiguchi is one of the best blends of Karate and boxing in mixed martial arts (MMA) history. He has the incredible ability to explode forward suddenly and cover leaps of distance, yet he follows it up with great head movement and the ability to build on combinations. Horiguchi is also a damn good wrestler and grappler, particularly when he’s not being dwarfed by Bantamweight oppositions. This bout will come down to distance management. Horiguchi — despite his excellent weaving hooks — will want to limit the amount of time spent in the pocket with Kape, who is unreasonably fast and powerful when putting combos together. Fortunately, Horiguchi is quicker with his feet, able to spring forward and land then escape before the return fire comes.

The “escape” is important. Horiguchi has to consistently exit at an angle, ideally with head movement, rather than pull straight backward. Horiguchi could also look to add takedowns or clinch up after he throws, as punching-and-clutching would also be a viable path to smother Kape’s offense. Finally, Horiguchi should be throwing lots of kicks when in the open. We’ve seen multiple opponents score free points against Kape by just staying active with kicks at distance, and Horiguchi has the power to do actual damage and keep Kape’s hands at home if he’s blasting body and high kicks. Over the years, Kape grew from wild athlete to more refined boxer. His hands are exceptionally quick, and Kape cracks with a thud that’s largely unmatched at 125-pounds. Generally, Kape is difficult both to take and hold down, while inactivity is his historic greatest issue. If the matchup is all about distance for Horiguchi, it’s all about timing for Kape. When Horiguchi leaps forward, he’s creating a tremendous amount of potential impact … for both men. We just saw Horiguchi run into a punch from Amir Albazi and get momentarily stunned, and he’s nowhere near the level of puncher as “Starboy.”

This is an outstanding fight that could absolutely go either way. Horiguchi has the edge in versatility and general technical ability, whereas Kape has a ton of momentum and absolute thunder in his hands. As for the actual prediction: timing is everything in combat sports, and Kape is running hot. He has all the confidence in the world and really seems to have improved his inactivity issues. Horiguchi, conversely, is still excellent, but physically appears a small step behind his best. He’s just a little slower, a little less durable compared to the height of his RIZIN run. In the first fight, prime Horiguchi smoked a talented prospect. Tune is below for complete Match Card and event detail for UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi June 20th, 2026.